The Pre-Owned Watch Market, Summer 2026: What the Data Shows

Three things are true at the end of July 2026, and they do not obviously fit together. Swiss watch exports rose 11.2 per cent in June. The secondary market has now risen for six consecutive months across every brand one major index tracks. And the first half of 2026 still closed down 0.7 per cent by value, with the United States down 14.8 per cent.

What follows is what the published data actually says, with sources and dates attached to every figure. Where a number is contested or unverifiable, we say so rather than pick the convenient version.

1. The data

Swiss exports, June and first half 2026

The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry published its half-year figures on 21 July 2026.

By market in June: United Kingdom up 12.2 per cent, United Arab Emirates up 20.4, Japan up 8.8, Hong Kong up 6.9, Singapore up 6.7. Against that, China fell 16.5 per cent, Germany 10.6 and Italy 21.4.

France appears in the data at plus 103.5 per cent. Do not read that as demand. Monochrome flagged it as unrepresentative and almost certainly a re-export artefact, and we agree.

By material, June tells a clear story: precious metals up 2.9 per cent in value on volume down 1.4 per cent. Fewer gold watches, at higher prices per piece. Steel up 5.0 per cent in value and 7.0 per cent in volume. Bimetallic up 42.1 per cent.

The Federation's own forecast, quoted verbatim: "Forecasts for 2026 as a whole point to relatively stable performance compared with 2025. Nonetheless, the level of uncertainty remains particularly high both in the Middle East and in relation to future tariffs that the U.S. government may impose on Switzerland."

The secondary market

Chrono24's ChronoPulse index, covering roughly 140 model references across 13 brands, reported by WatchPro on 15 July 2026:

• Overall market up 1.2 per cent month on month in June
• Overall market up 5.5 per cent over six months
• All 13 tracked brands positive over the six-month window
• Cartier up 5.9 per cent in June and roughly 10 per cent over six months, rising "at a rate 3.5 times greater than any other watch brand"
• Patek Philippe up 1.7 per cent in June, 6.8 per cent over six months, 12.2 per cent over one year
• Jaeger-LeCoultre up 8.6 per cent over six months

For context on how recent the turn is: the same index recorded minus 0.4 per cent in April 2026, the first monthly stall of the year.

Value retention against retail

Morgan Stanley's Q2 2026 note, using WatchCharts data with a snapshot dated 29 June 2026, reported by WatchPro on 17 July:

Every tracked brand improved between January and June 2026. Morgan Stanley's own caution, quoted: "while most second-hand market metrics improved again in 2Q and the recovery became more broad-based, gains for the listed players remain relatively modest, and VR ratios continue to suggest limited pricing power outside the Big Three."

The tariff position

This is the part of the picture most likely to change, so we are stating it as a chronology rather than a conclusion.

We are not going to tell you what rate is in force today. The last rate confirmed in the watch trade press is 15 per cent, the Section 122 window closed on 24 July 2026, and no trade outlet has yet reported what replaced or extended it. Anyone publishing a confident number this week is guessing.

2. The interpretation

The June export figure is a rebound, not a recovery. An 11.2 per cent monthly gain against a half-year that still closed down 0.7 per cent tells you the comparison base was weak, not that demand has structurally shifted. The US figure makes this plain: up 12.7 per cent in June, down 14.8 per cent across the half. June 2025 was the month tariff anticipation distorted shipments. The year-on-year maths is flattering.

The secondary market recovery is real and it is broad. Every brand positive over six months is a different signal from one or two references running. Balazs Ferenczi of Chrono24 put it directly: "Gains that run across the index rather than concentrating in one or two brands." Breadth is what distinguishes a market turn from a speculative episode.

Momentum and value retention are not the same measure, and Cartier proves it. Cartier is the fastest-rising brand on the Chrono24 heat index and simultaneously sits 27.4 per cent below retail on the WatchCharts value retention measure. Both are true. One measures direction, the other measures level. A buyer who conflates them will misread the entire market. The direction of travel for Cartier is unambiguous: the discount narrowed from 28.1 per cent in Q1 to 27.4 per cent at the end of June, and the brand's Gen Z share on Chrono24 rose from 1.7 to 6.8 per cent over seven years.

The polarisation documented in February has not eased. The ninth annual Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult report, published 18 February 2026, found the top four brands taking 55 per cent of market share, up from 52.4 per cent. Watches above CHF 50,000 accounted for 37.3 per cent of export value from 1.4 per cent of volume, and drove 89 per cent of total growth. Volume across the industry is down 51 per cent from the 2011 peak. Ten of the top 50 brands contracted by 15 per cent or more.

Two caveats on that report, in fairness. Its brand-level figures are estimates, and Swatch Group formally challenged their accuracy in March 2026, alleging average turnover deviation of 24 per cent. Cite the CHF figures as estimates, not as accounts.

The structural point for a US buyer is the one nobody advertises. A tariff is charged when a watch crosses the border. Stock already inside the United States sits outside that calculation entirely. Whatever the rate settles at, watches already here are already here.

3. What this means if you are buying this summer

Not advice, and explicitly not a claim about future value. Observations that follow from the data above.

• The brands with the widest discounts to retail are not the brands with the weakest momentum. Cartier, Omega, IWC and Vacheron Constantin all sit 27 to 38 per cent below retail while improving quarter on quarter. That gap is where a curated pre-owned proposition does its work.
• Superseded reference numbers remain the most reliable source of value in the market. Where a manufacturer renumbers a reference without changing the watch, the older number routinely clears lower. We have written about exactly this in the Santos WSSA0009 and WSSA0018 case and in the Panthère size guide.
• Retail increases pull certified pre-owned pricing with them. Rolex raised US prices by an average of 7 per cent effective 1 January 2026, and again by 5 per cent on gold in June. Cartier raised US prices from 21 May 2026. Rolex Certified Pre-Owned controls roughly 10 per cent of the global secondary market and prices against new retail.
• Summer changes what sells, not what it costs. Chrono24 research found dive watches gain 6.2 percentage points of share in summer and dress watches lose 7.0 points. There is no published evidence that summer changes transacted value. If you want a dress watch, competition for it is at its weakest right now.

4. The risk

Three specific ones.

The tariff position is unresolved. The Section 122 window closed on 24 July 2026. A materially different rate would move US retail pricing, and certified pre-owned pricing behind it, within a quarter.

The trackers disagree with each other by more than any seasonal signal. For calendar 2025, WatchCharts recorded Rolex up 3.4 per cent, Subdial recorded the overall market down 2 per cent, EveryWatch recorded Rolex up 8.7 per cent, and Morgan Stanley with WatchCharts recorded the market up 4.9 per cent. Methodological variation exceeds the effects people try to read from these indices. Treat any single index reading as one instrument, not as the temperature.

Concentration cuts both ways. A market where four brands take 55 per cent of value and roughly 76 per cent of profits is a market where a change in policy at one manufacturer moves everything. That is a structural fragility, not a stability.

5. The next data points to watch

1. The successor to the Section 122 tariff authority. First reporting is likely through WatchPro and JCK rather than through the watch enthusiast press.
2. The July ChronoPulse reading, due mid-August 2026. A seventh consecutive positive month across all 13 brands would establish the recovery as a trend rather than a run.
3. FH export data for July 2026, due late August. Specifically whether the US figure holds its June direction or reverts to the half-year trend.
4. Cartier's value retention at the Q3 snapshot. The discount has narrowed 3.5 points since January. Whether it continues will tell you whether the momentum is repricing the brand or simply trading it.

Frequently asked questions

Is the pre-owned watch market going up in 2026?

On the Chrono24 ChronoPulse index, yes: up 1.2 per cent in June 2026 and 5.5 per cent over six months, with all 13 tracked brands positive over that window. Other trackers use different methodologies and produce different figures, so treat this as one instrument among several.

Which watch brands are gaining most in the secondary market right now?

Cartier led June 2026 on the Chrono24 index at plus 5.9 per cent, described as rising 3.5 times faster than any other tracked brand. Patek Philippe and Rolex lead on value retention against retail at plus 15.4 and plus 9.8 per cent respectively as at the 29 June 2026 snapshot.

How did Swiss watch exports perform in June 2026?

Up 11.2 per cent year on year to CHF 2.391 billion, with the United States up 12.7 per cent. The first half of 2026 nonetheless closed down 0.7 per cent by value.

What tariff applies to Swiss watches imported into the US?

The last rate confirmed in the trade press is 15 per cent, applied under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 from February 2026. That authority carries a 150-day statutory limit which was reached on 24 July 2026. The position after that date had not been reported at the time of writing.

Is summer a good time to buy a pre-owned watch?

There is no published evidence that summer changes what the market pays. There is evidence that it changes what the market wants: dive watches and coloured dials gain share, dress watches lose it. That is a mix effect, and it is the only seasonality finding we could source.

Related reading

• How to buy a pre-owned luxury watch
• Watches and Wonders 2026: a pre-owned curator's view
• The current Honeyrock collection

Sources

1. Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, half-year statistics, 21 July 2026, as reported by Monochrome, JCK, swissinfo, Rapaport, Bloomberg Law and Luxus Plus.
2. WatchPro, "Secondary market heat builds around Cartier", 15 July 2026.
3. WatchPro, "Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet tighten grip on secondary market", 17 July 2026.
4. WatchPro, "Pre-owned watch price rally runs out of steam", 21 May 2026.
5. WatchPro, "Rolex returns drop on secondary market as retail prices rise", 21 January 2026.
6. Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult, ninth annual Swiss Watcher report, 18 February 2026, as reported by Professional Watches, Monochrome, WatchPro and Revolution.
7. WatchPro, "Swatch Group considers legal action over alleged inaccuracies in Morgan Stanley's annual report", 2 March 2026.
8. WatchPro, tariff reporting, 10 December 2025 and 23 February 2026. JCK, 14 November 2025.
9. Chrono24 seasonality research, reported by WatchPro, 22 September 2025.
10. Chrono24 and Fratello Gen Z secondary market report, 22 October 2025.

This article reports published market data for information only. It is not investment advice, and nothing in it should be read as a forecast or guarantee of future value or price appreciation. Figures are stated as at the dates given. Last updated 26 July 2026.